ACM：中国购买欧债前景致美元走软 8mV35A7l
来源：亚洲外汇网 Kp"o0fh<9
作者：彼得·罗森斯得克 <mpkkCl,
|ey6Czm
Q{>{ e3z}
Q=+KnE=h
(BJs6":BFe
iQA
f
今日汇评 %9M_ * ]
rod{ 77
因臆测中国将增加购买欧元债券，缓解了对风暴蔓延到其他国家的担忧，令欧元兑美元本月多数时候保持上扬，外汇早盘活跃的风险偏好使得美元兑各主要货币走弱，致使美元下跌。欧洲金融稳定机制的雷格林表示：当该机构6月份卖出葡萄牙救助债券后，亚洲包括中国的投资者可能会极有兴趣参与购买；并且在某报道显示，商业投资增加、股市上涨推动对高收益货币需求的情况下，欧元兑美元以及澳元兑美元将会从6周的低点分别上扬到1.4195和1.0613。积极的国内生产总值情绪显示，出口增长3.7%以及进口下跌2.3%，致使股市上扬，英镑兑美元强劲上涨至高点1.6334。与此同时，由于美国增加炼油，显示需求已经有所上升，使得油价下跌到101.90美元/桶；欧盟危机支持贵金属价格走高，金价涨至1531美元/盎司，银价涨至38.50美元/盎司。 6l50IWj,T
y :457R2F
美联储的柯薛拉柯塔对美国经济增长前景持更为谨慎的态度，预期本年度的国内生产总值将增长3%左右。他还预期2011年核心通胀率在2％以下，以及重申本年晚些时候适度加息的观点，但他还表示如果核心通胀率从其预期的1.5%向2%迈进，那么更积极的紧缩政策将会是有效保证。第一季度国内生产总值数据的第二次估计值以及最近一次的失业救济申请数据即将公布。这些数据非常重要，将对最近疲弱的美国数据提供一些提振——向上修正的国内生产总值数据版本将向大家展现经济处于复苏阶段，而向下修正的版本将会支撑短期波动背后会有更大不确定波动的观念。 .rS0zU
G6I>Ry[2 ?
Dollar lost ground as it weakened against most majors after positive news in early trading session kept risk-appetite alive with the EURUSD strengthening the most in a month on speculation China will increase purchase of Euro bonds, easing concerns of the contagion spreading to other countries. EFSF’s Regling said that Asian investors including China may buy Portuguese bailout bonds when EFSF sells them in June and the EURUSD moved up to 1.4195, AUDUSD moved up to 1.0613, rising from a six-week low after a report showed business investment increased and stock gains boosted demand for high-yield currencies, GBPUSD moved up strongly to highs of 1.6334 on stock gains, positive GDP sentiments with exports rising 3.7% and imports falling 2.3% while Oil jumped to $101.90 on increased refinery processing in the US, showing demand has been increasing while metals strengthened on EU crisis with Gold at $1531 and Silver up at $38.50 levels. nJ6bC^*)U
O=yUA AD$
Fed’s Kocherlakota was more cautious on his outlook for US growth as he sees GDP around 3% this year. He sees core inflation below 2% in 2011 and reiterated his view for a modest rate hike later in the year, though he did say more aggressive tightening would be warranted if core inflation moves closer to 2% from his 1.5% expectation. The second estimate of Q1 GDP and the latest claims figure are due. But the data will be important in that they could provide some context for the recent softness in US data – an upward revision to GDP could show that the recovery is ongoing whereas another decline in claims could support the notion that transitory factors are the larger factor behind recent volatility.
